Assessment of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Muğla Province in the Context of Water Management

Abstract

This study investigates the long-term trends and variability of temperature and precipitation in Muğla Province, located in southwestern Türkiye, using daily data from 1956 to 2024. The analysis was conducted using the hydroTSM package in R, enabling the transformation of raw meteorological data into meaningful climatic indicators. Results indicate a statistically significant warming trend, with an approximate 2.5°C increase in annual mean temperatures over the study period. Seasonal analyses reveal an earlier onset and delayed end of the summer season, alongside milder winter evidence of a shifting climatic regime. Concurrently, precipitation patterns exhibit increasing irregularity, with dry summers becoming more pronounced and extreme rainfall events intensifying, especially in recent years. These dynamics have critical implications for agricultural water demand, irrigation planning, and disaster risk management. It is concluded that Muğla is becoming increasingly vulnerable to both drought and flood risks, necessitating adaptive water resource management strategies. These include revising irrigation schedules, integrating early warning systems, and exploring alternative water sources to ensure resilience against climate-induced challenges.