The Effect of Frost Disaster on Agricultural Production in the Central District of Niğde Province: Product Based Economic Evaluation

Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of the frost event that occurred on April 12, 2025, in the central district of Niğde province on agricultural production. Data from farmer applications submitted to the Niğde Provincial Directorate of Agriculture, along with minimum temperature records obtained from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, were used in the analysis. Damages caused by the frost were evaluated based on the affected area, damage ratios, and estimated economic losses per product. The findings revealed substantial economic losses particularly in fruit crops such as apples, walnuts, nectarines, and cherries. Meteorological assessments indicated that the recorded temperature of -9.3°C was the lowest value observed in the past 75 years and that the frost lasted approximately 12 hours. This extreme weather event coincided with the flowering period of fruit trees, resulting in significant yield losses. While direct costs are to be compensated by the state, economic evaluations show that farmers’ indirect losses such as labor input, market losses, and opportunity costs are substantially higher. The results underscore the need to restructure early warning systems and agricultural support policies to mitigate the risks associated with such extreme climatic events.