Regression Analysis Estimation of Consumer Demand for Imported Meat and Imported Milk in the Turkish Market
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v13i12.4071-4081.7995Keywords:
Import Meat Demand, Import Milk Demand, Imported Product Consumer Preference, Regression analysis , TürkiyeAbstract
The objective of this study is to estimate the factors influencing Turkish consumers’ demand for imported meat and meat products, as well as imported milk and dairy products, through regression analysis. For this purpose, a model has been constructed to predict the import demand function for meat and dairy products. Model A provides on explanatory framework for milk and dairy products, while Model B reflects changes in the import market demand for meat and meat products. The dependent variable in the study is the change in import demand (Mt). The independent variables include domestic prices (Pt), disposable household income (Yt), the exchange rate (X), a trend factor (T) that captures changes in consumer preferences over time, and a dummy variable representing extraordinary periods. According to the empirical findings, a rise in domestic meat prices increases meat imports by a factor of 3.74, while a similar increase in domestic milk prices raises milk imports by a factor of 0.997. Furthermore, a one-unit increase in the exchange rate results in a 4.38-fold increase in meat imports and a 1.077-fold increase in milk imports. Also, it was found that extreme periods such as crises, inflation and pandemics reduced meat imports by a factor of 1.83. In contrast, it was determined that milk imports increased slightly during these periods. Over the 23-year period analysed, there has been a noticeable rise in consumer demand for imported meat and milk. The most significant finding of the study is the shift in consumer preferences toward imported food products.
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