Current and Future Olive (Olea europaea L.) Distribution Mapping in Türkiye Based on Climate Scenarios
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v13i9.2774-2783.8069Keywords:
climate resilience, distribution range shifts, geographic information systems (GIS), MaxEnt, Olea europaeaAbstract
This study aims to evaluate the current and future potential distribution areas of Olea europaea L. (olive), one of the characteristic species of the Mediterranean climate, in the context of climate change in Türkiye. Olive is a strategic species that attracts attention with its high economic value and ecological contributions as a non-wood forest product. However, global climate change leads to significant changes in the phenology, yielding the potential and suitability of this species due to stressful factors such as increasing temperatures, drought and extreme weather events. In this context, the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) species distribution model was used based on high-resolution CHELSA climate data to analyze the environmental variables affecting the distribution of the species and to model the potential distribution areas under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) for the year 2100. The success of the model was confirmed with high AUC values (training: 0.917; testing: 0.911), and the most effective variables were elevation, annual mean temperature (BIO1), precipitation seasonality (BIO15) and terrain roughness. The findings indicate that olives may lose their potential distribution areas in traditional coastal zones in the future, while gaining new suitable areas at higher elevations and in more northerly regions. Especially in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, while the suitability areas on the Mediterranean and Aegean coasts narrowed because of increasing temperatures, shifts towards the Black Sea coasts and inland regions were detected. The results obtained are consistent with similar studies in literature and point out the necessity of re-planning future production strategies in terms of olive cultivation with a climate adaptation perspective. In this context, it is suggested to develop multidimensional approaches that integrate not only climatic but also soil, water, biotic interactions and socioeconomic factors.
References
Acarer, A. (2024a). Brown bear (Ursus arctos L.) distribution model in Europe. Current situation and the potential role of climate change, Šumarski list, 148(5-6), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.31298/sl.148.5-6.4
Acarer, A. (2024b). A scenario-driven strategy for future habitat management of the Andean bear. Journal of Wildlife and Biodiversity, 8(4), 56-77. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13822908
Almoselhy, R. I., & Usmani, A. (2024). From Tree to Treatment: Innovative Applications of Olive Products and Byproducts in Culinary, Health, and Environmental Sustainability. Health, and Environmental Sustainability (December 20, 2024). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5065380
Arenas-Castro, S., Gonçalves, J. F., Moreno, M., & Villar, R. (2020). Projected climate changes are expected to decrease the suitability and production of olive varieties in southern Spain. Science of the total environment, 709, 136161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136161
Ashraf, U., Ali, H., Chaudry, M. N., Ashraf, I., Batool, A., & Saqib, Z. (2016). Predicting the potential distribution of Olea ferruginea in Pakistan incorporating climate change by using Maxent model. Sustainability, 8(8), 722. https://doi.org/10.3390/su8080722
Ayaz, M., & Varol, N. (2015). İklim Parametrelerindeki Değişimlerin (Sıcaklık, Yağış, Kar, Nispi Nem, Sis, Dolu ve Rüzgar) Zeytin Yetiştiriciliği Üzerine Etkileri. Zeytin Bilimi, 5(1), 33-40.
Benítez-Cabello, A., Delgado, A. M., & Quintas, C. (2023). Main challenges expected from the impact of climate change on microbial biodiversity of table olives: Current status and trends. Foods, 12(19), 3712. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods12193712
Braunisch, V., Coppes, J., Arlettaz, R., Suchant, R., Schmid, H., & Bollmann, K. (2013). Selecting from correlated climate variables: a major source of uncertainty for predicting species distributions under climate change. Ecography, 36(9), 971-983. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00138.x
Çıvğa, A., Gülsoy, S., & Şentürk, Ö. (2023). Potential Distribution Modeling of Wild Olive (Olea europaea L. subsp. europaea) and Sage (Salvia tomentosa Mill.) Species in the Babadağ (Fethiye) Region. 21. Yüzyılda Fen ve Teknik, 10(19), 29-39.
Çıvğa, A. (2025). Unlocking the Habitat Suitability of Wild Olive to Improve Its industrial Potential: A Comprehensive Distribution Modeling Study. BioResources, 20(1).
Deniz, A., Toros, H., & Incecik, S. (2011). Spatial variations of climate indices in Turkey. International Journal of climatology, 31(3), 394-403. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2081
Efe, R., A.Soykan., İ. Cürebal., S. Sönmez, (2011). “Dünyada, Türkiye’de, Edremit Körfezi Çevresinde Zeytin ve Zeytinyağı” Edremit Belediyesi Kültür yayınları No:6, 1. Baskı-Haziran 2011.
Efe, R., Soykan, A., Sönmez, S., & Cürebal, İ. (2009). Sıcaklık şartlarının Türkiye’de zeytinin (Olea europea L. subs. europaea) yetişmesine, fenolojik ve pomolojik özelliklerine etkisi. https://doi.org/10.5053/ekoloji.2009.703
Elith, J., & Graham, C. H. (2009). Do they? How do they? WHY do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models. Ecography, 32(1), 66-77.
Elith, J., Phillips, S. J., Hastie, T., Dudík, M., Chee, Y. E., & Yates, C. J. (2011). A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Diversity and distributions, 17(1), 43-57. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00725.x
Fraga, H., Moriondo, M., Leolini, L., & Santos, J. A. (2020). Mediterranean olive orchards under climate change: A review of future impacts and adaptation strategies. Agronomy, 11(1), 56. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11010056
GBIF, (2025). GBIF.org (24 June 2025) GBIF Occurrence Download https://doi.org/10.15468/dl.d9rx46
Gianguzzi, L., & Bazan, G. (2019). The Olea europaea L. var. sylvestris (Mill.) Lehr. forests in the Mediterranean area. Plant Sociology, 56(2), 3-34.
Guisan, A., & Thuiller, W. (2005). Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology letters, 8(9), 993-1009. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x
Gutierrez, A. P., Ponti, L., & Cossu, Q. A. (2009). Effects of climate warming on olive and olive fly (Bactrocera oleae (Gmelin)) in California and Italy. Climatic Change, 95(1), 195-217. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9528-4
Huang, J., & Ling, C. X. (2005). Using AUC and accuracy in evaluating learning algorithms. IEEE Transactions on knowledge and Data Engineering, 17(3), 299-310. https://doi.org/10.1109/TKDE.2005.50
Johnstone, I. M. (2001). On the distribution of the largest eigenvalue in principal components analysis. The Annals of statistics, 29(2), 295-327.
Kalayci Kadak, M., Ozturk, S., & Mert, A. (2024). Predicting climate-based changes of landscape structure for Turkiye via global climate change scenarios: a case study in Bartin river basin with time series analysis for 2050. Natural Hazards, 120(14), 13289-13307. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06706-x
Karger, D. N., Conrad, O., Böhner, J., Kawohl, T., Kreft, H., Soria-Auza, R. W., ... & Kessler, M. (2017). Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas. Scientific data, 4(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.122
Karger, D. N., Schmatz, D. R., Dettling, G., & Zimmermann, N. E. (2020). High-resolution monthly precipitation and temperature time series from 2006 to 2100. Scientific data, 7(1), 248. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-00587-y
Khan, S., & Verma, S. (2022). Ensemble modeling to predict the impact of future climate change on the global distribution of Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 5, 977691. https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2022.977691
Kaya, C., Acarer, A., & Tekin, S. (2025). Global climate change, a threat: example of the chamois’ case. Šumarski list, 149(3-4), 169-180. https://doi.org/10.31298/sl.149.3-4.5
Kuzucuoğlu, C. (2019). The physical geography of Turkey: an outline. Landscapes and landforms of Turkey, 7-15. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-03515-0
Langgut, D., Cheddadi, R., Carrión, J. S., Cavanagh, M., Colombaroli, D., Eastwood, W. J., ... & Woodbridge, J. (2019). The origin and spread of olive cultivation in the Mediterranean Basin: The fossil pollen evidence. The Holocene, 29(5), 902-922. https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683619826654
Loumou, A., & Giourga, C. (2003). Olive groves:``The life and identity of the Mediterranean’‘. Agriculture and human values, 20, 87-95. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022444005336
Martins, S., Pereira, S., Dinis, L. T., & Brito, C. (2024). Enhancing Olive Cultivation Resilience: Sustainable Long-Term and Short-Term Adaptation Strategies to Alleviate Climate Change Impacts. Horticulturae, 10(10), 1066. https://doi.org/10.3390/horticulturae10101066
Mert, A., & Acarer, A. (2018). Wildlife diversity in reed beds around Beyşehir Lake. Bilge International Journal of Science and Technology Research, 2(1), 110-119. Moriondo, M., Stefanini, F. M., & Bindi, M. (2008). Reproduction of olive tree habitat suitability for global change impact assessment. Ecological Modelling, 218(1-2), 95-109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.06.024
Moriondo, M., Trombi, G., Ferrise, R., Brandani, G., Dibari, C., Ammann, C. M., ... & Bindi, M. (2013). Olive trees as bio‐indicators of climate evolution in the Mediterranean B asin. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 22(7), 818-833. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12061
Özdel, M. M., Ustaoğlu, B., & Cürebal, İ. (2024a). Modeling of the potential distribution areas suitable for olive (Olea europaea L.) in Türkiye from a climate change perspective. Agriculture, 14(9), 1629.
Özdel, M. M., Ustaoğlu, B., & Cürebal, İ. (2024b). İklim değişikliğine bağlı olarak zeytinin (Olea europaea L.) Türkiye’de gelecekteki dağılımının modellenmesi ve uyum stratejileri üzerine bir inceleme. Türk Coğrafya Dergisi, (86), 105-120.
Öğütcü, M., & Kıraç, A. (2020). Future projection of olive production in Çanakkale. Journal of Science and Technology of Dumlupınar University, (044), 33-43.
Ozturk, M., Altay, V., Gönenç, T. M., Unal, B. T., Efe, R., Akçiçek, E., & Bukhari, A. (2021). An overview of olive cultivation in Turkey: Botanical features, eco-physiology and phytochemical aspects. Agronomy, 11(2), 295. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11020295
Phillips, S. J., Anderson, R. P., & Schapire, R. E. (2006). Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological modelling, 190(3-4), 231-259.
Phillips, S. J., & Dudík, M. (2008). Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography, 31(2), 161-175. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.5203.x
Rodrigo-Comino, J., Salvia, R., Quaranta, G., Cudlín, P., Salvati, L., & Gimenez-Morera, A. (2021). Climate aridity and the geographical shift of olive trees in a Mediterranean Northern Region. Climate, 9(4), 64. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9040064
Rodríguez Sousa, A. A., Barandica, J. M., Aguilera, P. A., & Rescia, A. J. (2020). Examining potential environmental consequences of climate change and other driving forces on the sustainability of Spanish olive groves under a socio-ecological approach. Agriculture, 10(11), 509. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture10110509
Rugini, E., Mencuccini, M., Biasi, R., & Altamura, M. M. (2005). Olive (Olea europaea L.). Protocol for somatic embryogenesis in woody plants, 345-360.
Shafıq, m., Iqbal, M. Z., & Athar, M. (2024). The benefıcıal effects of olıve tree (Olea europaea L.) In the nutrıtıonal, pharmaceutıcal and ındustrıal applıcatıon: a revıew. Journal of Plant Development, 31. https://doi.org/10.47743/jpd.2024.31.1.950
Shi, W., Tao, F., & Zhang, Z. (2013). A review on statistical models for identifying climate contributions to crop yields. Journal of geographical sciences, 23,567-576. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-013-1029-3
Swets, J. A. (1988). Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science, 240(4857), 1285-1293. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.3287615
Tanasijevic, L., Todorovic, M., Pereira, L. S., Pizzigalli, C., & Lionello, P. (2014). Impacts of climate change on olive crop evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements in the Mediterranean region. Agricultural Water Management, 144, 54-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2014.05.019
Tekeş, A., Karagöz, S. G., & Ulusan, M. D. (2024). Bazı endemik ve tıbbi öneme sahip bitki türlerinin uçucu bileşenlerinin yükseltiye bağlı değişimi. Anadolu Orman Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(2), 123-138. https://doi.org/10.53516/ajfr.1561953
Tekeş, A. (2025). Modeling the current and future potential distribution areas of Quercus robur L. (pedunculate oak). In Ç. Uyar & S. Özdemir (Eds.), Sustainability approaches on forest and carbon (pp. 33-52). Livre de Lyon. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15078963
Tekeş, A., Özdemir, S., Aykurt, C., Gülsoy, S., & Özkan, K. (2025). Species distribution modeling of red hawthorn (Crataegus monogyna Jacq.) in response to climate change. Šumarski list, 149(5-6). https://doi.org/10.31298/sl.149.5-6.3
Torrecillas, C., & Martínez, C. (2022). Patterns of specialisation by country and sector in olive applications. Technology in Society, 70, 102003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2022.102003
Tuğaç, M. G., & Sefer, F. (2021). Determination of suitable areas for olive (Olea europaea L.) production in Turkey by geographic information systems (GIS) based multi-criteria analysis. Journal of Ege University Faculty of Agriculture, 58(1), 97-113. https://doi.org/10.20289/zfdergi.678474
Uylaşer, V., & Yildiz, G. (2014). The historical development and nutritional importance of olive and olive oil constituted an important part of the Mediterranean diet. Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition, 54(8), 1092-1101. https://doi.org/10.1080/10408398.2011.626874
Ziesche, T. M., & Roth, M. (2008). Influence of environmental parameters on small-scale distribution of soil-dwelling spiders in forests: What makes the difference, tree species or microhabitat? Forest Ecology and Management, 255(3-4), 738-752. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2007.09.060
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
