An Analysis of Türkiye’s Competitiveness in the EU Dried Grape Market

Abstract

Türkiye holds a significant position in the global production and export of raisins. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the dynamics of Türkiye’s competitiveness in the raisin sector within the European Union (EU), its most strategic export market, for the period 2005-2023. Within this framework, the factors behind Türkiye’s competitive position and performance are examined using the Symmetric Revealed Comparative Advantage (SRCA) index and the Constant Market Share (CMS) model. The findings indicate that Türkiye has maintained an extremely high and stable comparative advantage (RCA > 1) and a significant market leadership position in the EU raisin market throughout the examined period. The CMS analysis reveals that while the main driving force of Türkiye’s export growth was the general expansion of market demand, a positive competitiveness effect indicating a net gain in market share from its competitors also contributed significantly to its performance. Furthermore, the analyses show that the market’s competitive structure has undergone a structural transformation, with the market share of the traditional competitor, the USA, declining while South Africa has emerged as the second-largest player. It is assessed that Türkiye’s competitive strategy is fundamentally based on prices below the world average, an approach that entails long-term sustainability risks. The study’s conclusions highlight the importance of formulating policies aimed at increasing unit export value and value creation, rather than relying on Türkiye’s current volume-driven competition.