Time Series Analysis of Seasonal Agricultural Worker Wages in Türkiye
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v14i6.1630-1642.8670Keywords:
Real wage , Seasonal worker , Time series analysis , ARIMA , TrendAbstract
This study aims to examine the dynamics of real daily wages of seasonal agricultural workers in Türkiye, focusing on city-level and gender dimensions. The analysis is conducted using city-level real wage series for the 2007–2024 period. Initially, stationarity and trend analyses were applied, followed by a classification of cities based on wage levels and growth trends. In the final stage, forward-looking projections up to the year 2030 were generated using ARIMA models. The findings indicate that real agricultural wages generally exhibit an upward trend in the long run; however, this increase involves significant heterogeneity across cities and regions. It was observed that real wage growth is stronger and more stable in cities within the “high-trend” group, whereas growth remains limited and forecast uncertainty increases in the “low-trend” group. Furthermore, the results reveal that the real daily wages of female agricultural workers are lower than those of male workers in all cities. Forecast results suggest that real wage increases will continue in the medium and long term. These findings demonstrate that policies regarding the agricultural labor market should be designed within a flexible and targeted framework that considers regional disparities and gender-based inequalities
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