The Effect of Remote Teleconnection Patterns on Temperature and Precipitation of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v11i4.758-767.5856Keywords:
Teleconnection patterns, precipitation, temperature, Euphrates-Tigris BasinAbstract
The Euphrates-Tigris Basin is the most important water source in the Middle East. The present study examined the relationship between the precipitation and temperature characteristics of the basin using remote teleconnection patterns on a monthly time scale. The effects of the North Atlantic, Arctic Oscillations, North Sea Caspian Pattern, and Western Mediterranean indices were examined. The relationship between teleconnection patterns and precipitation/temperature was investigated by adopting Spearman’s Correlation test. All of the remote teleconnection patterns had significant effects on the temperature and precipitation characteristics of the basin. However, the North Sea Caspian Pattern significantly affected the temperatures of the entire basin. Similarly, the Western Mediterranean index had a significant effect on the average temperatures for four months (February, April, November, and December) in almost the entire basin. Also, the Western Mediterranean Index corralates positively with the precipitation of the basin in January, while the correlation is negative in October, and November. Especially, the Western Mediterranean Index and the North Sea Caspian Pattern showed one-month and two-month delayed relationships in monthly total precipitation in some months. At the extremes of the index values, relationships often became strong and distinct. The study results may be useful for seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts of the Euphrates-Tigris basin.
References
Altınbilek D. 2004. Development and management of the Euphrates-Tigris basin. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 20(1), 15-33.
Aksu H. 2021. Nonstationary analysis of the extreme temperatures in Turkey. Dynam Atmos Oceans 95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2021.101238
Aksu H, Cetin M, Aksoy H, Yaldiz SG, Yildirim I, Keklik G. 2022. Spatial and temporal characterization of standard duration-maximum precipitation over Black Sea Region in Turkey. Nat Hazards 111, 2379 -2405. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05141-6
Bozyurt O, Özdemir M. 2017. Arctic Oscillation’s Many Years Trends and the Effects of Arctic Oscillation Over Minimum Mean Temperature Values in Turkey. Afyon Kocatepe Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. Volume: 19- 1, 2017, 123- 135.
Clef T. 2013. Exploratory Data Analysis in Business and Economics: An Introduction Using SPSS, Stata, and Excel. Springer Science and Business Media.
Cullen H, deMenocal P. 2000. North Atlantic influence on Tigris–Euphrates streamflow. International Journal of Climatology, 853-863.
Çiçek İ, Türkoğlu N, Çalışkan A. 2008. Akdeniz salınımı’nın (as) Türkiye’de sıcaklık üzerine etkisi. Türkiye coğrafyası araştırma ve uygulama merkezi V. ulusal sempozyumu bildiriler kitabı, (s. 349-356).(in Turkish).
Gallego M, García J, Vaquero J. 2005. The NAO signal in daily rainfall series over the Iberian Peninsula. Clim Res, 103-109.
Göktürk O, Karaca M. 2005. Kuzey denizi – hazar paterni ve GAP bölgesi’ni besleyen havzaların hidrometeorolojik parametreleri üzerindeki etkisi. Proceedings of the Fifth GAP Engineering Congress, 26-28 April 2006, Şanlıurfa, Turkey.
Grise KM, Polvani LM. 2016. Is climate sensitivity related to dynamical sensitivity? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121, 5159– 5176. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024687
Hurrell JW. 1995. Decedal trends ın the north atlantic oscillation and relationships to regional temperature and precipitation. Science, 676-679.
Hurrell JW, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G. 2003. An overview of the North Atlantic oscillation. Washington: American Geophysical Union., 1-35.
Kahya E. 2011. The Impacts of NAO on the Hydrology of the Eastern Mediterranean. Hydrological, Socioeconomic and Ecological Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Mediterranean Region, 57-71.
Karabörk MÇ, Kahya E, Karaca M. 2005. The Influences of the Southern and North Atlantic Oscillations on Climatic Surface Variables in Turkey. Hydrol. Process. 19, 1185–1211.
Kutiel H, Benaroch, Y. 2002. North Sea-Caspian Pattern (NCP) - an upper level atmospheric teleconnection affecting the Eastern Mediterranean: Identification and definition. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 17-28.
López-Moreno JI, Vicente-Serrano SM, Morán-Tejeda E, Lorenzo-Lacruz J, Kenawy A, Beniston M. 2011. Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temperature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterranean mountains: Observed relationships and projections for the 21st century Glob. Planet. Change, 77 (2011), pp. 62-76, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.003
Martin-Vide J, Lopez-Bustins J-A. 2006. The Western Mediterranean Oscillation and rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula. Int. J. Climatol., 26: 1455-1475. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1388
Myers JL, Well AD. 2003. Research Design and StatisticalAnalysis (2nd ed.). Lawrence Erlbaum. pp. 508. ISBN 978-0-8058-4037-7.
Pettitt A. 1979. A Non‐Parametric Approach to the Change‐Point Problem. Royal Statistical Society, 126-135.
Rosner B. 1983. Percentage points for a generalized ESD many-outlier procedure . Technometrics, 165-172.
Selek B, Aksu H. 2020. Water Resources Potential of Turkey. World Water Resources (s. 241-256).
Sezen C, Partal T. 2017. The relatıon of north atlantıc oscıllatıon (nao) and north sea caspıan pattern (ncp) wıth clımate varıables ın medıterranean regıon of Turkey. The Eurasia Proceedings of Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics (EPSTEM), 366-371.
Sezen C, Partal T. 2019. The impacts of Arctic oscillation and the North Sea Caspian pattern on the temperature and precipitation regime in Turkey. Meteorol Atmos Phys 131, 1677–1696. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-019-00665-w
Spearman C. 1904. Reprinted: The proof and measurement of association between two things (2010). International Journal of Epidemiology, 39, 1137-1150.
Tabari H, Abghari H, Hosseinzadehtalaei, P. 2014. Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on streamflow in Western Iran.
Tan E, Unal Y. 2003. Impact Of NAO To Winter Precipitation And Temperature Variability Over Turkey. Sirri Erinc Symposium.
Thompson D, Wallace J. 1998. The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotencial height and temperature fields . Geophysical Research Letters, 1297-1300.
Trenberth K. 2022. Teleconnections and Patterns of Variability. In The Changing Flow of Energy Through the Climate System (pp. 162-179). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/9781108979030.014
Turkes M, Erlat E. 2003. Precipitation changes and variability in Turkey linked to the North Atlantic oscillation during the period 1930–2000. s. 1771-1796.
Turkes M, Erlat E. 2009. Winter mean temperature variability in Turkey associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation.
Turkes M, Kutiel H. 2005. New Evidence for The Role of The North Sea-Caspian Pattern on The Temperature and Precipitation Regimes in Continental Central Turkey. Geografiska Annaler Series A Physical Geography, 501-513.
URL_1. (2021). <https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.>, alındığı tarih: 28.03.2021.
URL_2. (2021). <https://crudata.uea.ac.uk.>, alındığı tarih: 28.03.2021.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.