A Study on Change of Organic Honey Production According to Years by Regression Analysis in Turkey

Abstract

In this study, changes in organic honey production in Turkey between 2004 and 2016 were examined by regression analysis. In regression analysis, linear, quadratic, cubic, logarithmic and inverse regression models have been studied comparatively. The R2 values obtained with these models are; 0.155, 0.616, 0.699, 0.366, 0.522, R ̅^2 values were found as 0.079, 0.539, 0.599, 0.308, 0.479 and MSE (Mean Squared Error) values were 48743.013, 24376.605, 21228.605, 36580.476, 27563.473, respectively. The quadratic regression model, in which the parameter estimates are significant, R ̅^2 is the highest and MSE is the lowest, is the most appropriate model. According to this regression model, estimated organic honey production yields in 2017 and 2018 are going to be 693 and 891 tons, respectively. In addition, regression analysis of non-organic honey production was done in the same period and linear regression model was determined as the most suitable model. For this model, R2= 0.772 and R ̅^2 = 0.750 were calculated. As a result, it has been concluded that organic and non-organic honey production yields can be estimated with different regression models.