Evaluation of The Sustainability of Buffalo Population in Türkiye and Samsun Province by Using Time Series Analysis

Abstract

Despite the advantages of buffalo breeding and the superiority of the products obtained from buffalo in human health, it is stated that the buffalo population is low with a decreasing trend and is among the endangered species. In Turkey, which is the country with the fastest decrease in the number of buffaloes among the countries where buffalo is raised in the world, Samsun has been in the first place in the water buffalo population from past to present. The aim of this study was to forecast the buffalo population in Turkey and Samsun province between 2023-2030 using Double Exponential Smoothing and Holt-Winters methods. The data of the Turkish buffalo population between the years 1929-2022 and the data of the buffalo population of Samsun between the years 1991-2022 were used.  It was determined in the study that the series were not stationary and the series became stationary after the first difference was taken. It was decided that the Holt-Winters model was the most suitable model for the data set for the buffalo population estimation. According to this model, it is predicted that the Turkish buffalo population will increase by 7.29% in 2030 compared to 2022, but the buffalo population in Samsun will remain stable in the next eight years. In this study, it can be stated that the buffalo population in Turkey will face the danger of extinction in the near future. For the sustainability of the buffalo existence in Turkey, the support given by the government by implementing long-term and effective policy tools should be increased and demand should be increased by raising awareness of the consumers about the benefits of buffalo milk and meat.