Projections of Effects of Global Warming on Rainfall Regime in Some Provinces; Ankara, Rize, Aydın and Hakkâri Provinces Example

Abstract

The effects of global warming have begun to be observed in today's world. Global warming affects Turkey as it affects the other parts of the world. Climatic Elements Turkey differ from province to province as well as they are differ from region to region. In this study order to evaluate these kind of climatic changes in terms of provinces projections, for the provinces of Ankara, Rize, Aydın and Hakkari, intended to show precipitation, were prepared for 10,15,20 and 48 years of future. in order to take regional differences account the provinces were selected from different regions. According to the results of the analysis, while the average annual precipitation between 1971 and 2018 in Ankara was 408.59 mm, it was 2262.76 mm in Rize, 634.33 mm in Aydın and 746.93 mm in Hakkari. Compared to the data realized in the projections prepared for 2019-2066, it is observed that there are changes in almost every province in average annual precipitation in parallel with global warming. However, these changes do not mean excessive changes in precipitation. In this sense, the effect of global warming is not seen as excessive increases in precipitation amounts, but as irregular and dominant form of precipitation. This study is important as it sheds light on the issue of taking precautions in terms of the necessity of ensuring food safety as agricultural activities will suffer as a result of these irregular and dominant rains caused by global warming.